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Box Office: Thunderbolts set for softer start than Captain America 4, even after rival actioner Shadow Force BACKS out
Early projections for Marvel’s Thunderbolts suggest a softer debut than Captain America 4, even after Shadow Force shifted its release to steer clear of a box office battle.
After the lukewarm run of Captain America: Brave New World, another Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) film is gearing up for release — Thunderbolts. Directed by Jake Schreier, the film brings together a team of antiheroes and is the 36th installment in the MCU. While anticipation is brewing, early projections for its box office run have raised eyebrows.
Led by Florence Pugh and Sebastian Stan, the entry is tracking to open between USD 65 to USD 85 million in North America. That’s notably lower than the Anthony Mackie-starrer, which debuted with USD 88.8 million over its three-day Valentine’s Day weekend release. Boosted by the Presidents’ Day holiday, CapAm earned USD 100 million within four days and currently sits at a global total of USD 412 million, including USD 199 million domestic and USD 213 million in overseas revenue.
For those unversed, the film marks Mackie’s first outing as the titular superhero following Chris Evans’s Steve Rogers’ departure. Harrison Ford plays the newly elected POTUS and the Red Hulk, with Shira Haas, Danny Ramirez, Tim Blake Nelson, and more rounding out the ensemble cast.
Despite the slower momentum for Brave New World, Marvel fans are curious about Thunderbolts, especially with its promised premise. The story follows a group of morally grey characters — Yelena Belova, Bucky Barnes, Red Guardian, Ghost, and more — forced into a deadly mission orchestrated by Valentina Allegra de Fontaine. With Lewis Pullman debuting as the stealthy but unstable Sentry, who also manifests as his darker alter ego, Void, the film promises an edgier tone than recent Marvel outings.
Interestingly, a rival action film, Shadow Force, which was initially scheduled to open on the same day as Thunderbolts, May 2, has moved its release to May 9. The step is a smart one, sparing both features from a direct box office clash. Shadow Force stars Kerry Washington and Omar Sy as ex-spouses and elite operatives on the run.
As Hollywood aims to balance franchise fatigue and maximize box office potential, scheduling plays a key role. By moving to a week later, Shadow Force appears to have avoided being overshadowed by the next Marvel tentpole. It’s a win-win situation for it, as it also secured a clear runway to attract audiences hungry for high-stakes action — if the first film bombs.
Marvel — and the superhero genre as a whole — desperately needs Thunderbolts to work.
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