Long-Range Box Office Preview: Michael B. Jordan's Sinners aims to defy R-rated horror slump with USD 30M–50M debut

Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan reunite for Sinners, an original R-rated horror thriller eyeing a USD 30M–50M debut as it aims to break out in a genre with mixed recent results.

Written by Seema Sinha , Entertainment Journalist

Published on Mar 22, 2025 | 05:05 PM IST | 8.9K

Picture Courtesy: Warner Bros. Pictures

Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan are set to reunite for Sinners, a supernatural horror thriller slated for release on April 18, 2025. Given the director-actor duo’s past collaborations on Creed and Black Panther, expectations are high for their upcoming project. However, Sinners differs from these blockbusters as an original film without a built-in fanbase, making its box office potential harder to predict.

Creed registered a USD 29.6 million domestic opening, leading to a USD 109.7 million total. Black Panther, on the other hand, thrived with a USD 202 million debut, ultimately reaching USD 700 million domestically. Both films benefited from their franchise connections and cross-generational appeal. Sinners will need to generate significant awareness ahead of its release to reach its full potential. Current projections estimate an opening in the USD 30 million to USD 50 million range. Given that early reviews of the trailer are mostly positive, Warner Bros. should not shy away from aggressive marketing.

If the film lands on the higher end, it could mirror 2018’s A Quiet Place, which logged a USD 50 million opening and a USD 188 million total. That film was also an original horror/thriller released in April. However, a key difference is that Sinners carries an R rating, which could limit its audience compared to A Quiet Place, which was rated PG-13.

Looking at a recent R-rated horror release, Evil Dead Rise (2023) opened at USD 24.5 million and ended with USD 68.7 million domestically. Sinners could outperform these figures if word of mouth helps build momentum. Other comparable original horror films include Jordan Peele’s Nope, Get Out, and Us, which earned USD 44 million (USD 122 million total), USD 33 million (USD 176 million total), and USD 71 million (USD 175 million total), respectively. These films managed to build intrigue through marketing that leaned into mystery—an approach Warner Bros. might attempt with Sinners.

This year, the horror genre has seen mixed results. Nosferatu opened with USD 21.6 million and reached a domestic total of USD 95.6 million. Wolf Man debuted with USD 10.8 million and totaled USD 20.7 million. The Monkey made USD 14 million in its first three days, and as of March 21, its domestic total stood at USD 36.1 million. While all three films connected with genre-specific audiences, they failed to break into the mainstream. Sinners will look to do exactly that—becoming a broad-appeal entertainer rather than a niche horror title.