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Long Range Memorial Day Box Office Forecast: Lilo and Stitch and Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning poised for record-breaking clash
Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning are poised to dominate Memorial Day 2025, with early projections suggesting a record-breaking box office weekend.
After a lackluster Memorial Day box office last year, courtesy of Furiosa and Garfield leading the charge, the 2025 summer season looks set to rock back with a bang as Disney’s Lilo & Stitch and Paramount’s Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning prepare for a blockbuster clash on May 23. Early projections for both titles have been released by tracking firm Quorum, and the estimates suggest we are about to witness the biggest Memorial Day weekend in recent history.
The live-action remake of Lilo & Stitch, directed by Dean Fleischer-Camp and featuring Maia Kealoha as the human character, is tracking for a massive USD 100 million-plus three-day launch. The buzz surrounding the film is significant and evident, as its trailer became the Mouse House’s second most-viewed live-action trailer ever with 158 million views.
Fans of the original 2002 animated classic are eager to see Stitch return to the big screen, with Chris Sanders reprising his voice role as the beloved blue alien. The film also stars Zach Galifianakis, Billy Magnussen, Hannah Waddingham, and Courtney B. Vance.
Meanwhile, Tom Cruise returns for his eighth and final outing as Ethan Hunt in MI8. Directed by franchise veteran Christopher McQuarrie, the film is expected to easily surpass the USD 61 million opening of 2018’s Fallout, and it will be imperative for it to do so because of its hefty production budget. With a USD 400 million price tag, the high-octane spy thriller carries the weight of both expectations and spectacle. Global buzz will surely spike after its world premiere at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival on May 14.
Both entries show stronger early awareness than Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts, which opens the same month and is currently tracking for a USD 70 million debut. According to Quorum, total awareness sits at 62 for Lilo & Stitch and 59 for The Final Reckoning, both significantly higher than Thunderbolts’ 37.
If forecasts hold, Memorial Day 2025 could surpass 2022’s USD 223.7 million haul, led by Cruise’s best theatrical outing, Top Gun: Maverick, and even challenge the record-setting USD 314.2 million of 2013 (Fast & Furious 6 and The Hangover Part III). With nostalgia, action, and star power driving the charge, this summer kickoff weekend is shaping up to be one not worth missing.
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