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US Box Office: Warfare targets USD 6–8M debut; see how recent battle films have performed
A24’s Warfare, inspired by true events, gears up for a modest box office start. As it hits theaters this weekend, here’s how similar war films have opened in recent years.
A24’s Warfare, a gritty new war action film from Ray Mendoza and Alex Garland, is set to enter the box office battlefield this weekend, with early projections estimating a modest domestic debut between USD 6 million and USD 8 million. While not a blockbuster start, the film’s grounded narrative could give it strong legs if word of mouth builds.
Written and directed by the aforementioned duo, Warfare draws from the former’s personal experience as a former US Navy SEAL during the Iraq War. Set during the final stages of the Battle of Ramadi in November 2006, the film follows a SEAL platoon as they navigate insurgent territory in real time. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai stars as Mendoza, alongside an ensemble cast rounded out by Cosmo Jarvis, Will Poulter, Joseph Quinn, Kit Connor, and Noah Centineo.
The film premiered at the Music Box Theater in Chicago on March 16 and will be released in US theaters tomorrow, followed by a UK rollout on April 18.
Warfare enters a competitive weekend, going up against Warner Bros.’ juggernaut A Minecraft Movie, Rami Malek’s The Amateur, and faith-based film The King of Kings. Holdover releases include Snow White and Captain America: Brave New World.
Historically, war films have seen varied success at the North American box office. Michael Bay’s 13 Hours (2016) opened to USD 16.1 million, eventually earning USD 52.8 million domestically. Hacksaw Ridge (2016) debuted with USD 15.1 million and ended with USD 67.2 million. Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk (2017) remains the genre’s recent tentpole with USD 50 million in opening and a total domestic gross of USD 189.7 million.
12 Strong (2018) earned USD 15 million in its first weekend, finishing at USD 45 million. Sam Mendes’ 1917 (2019) had a limited release with USD 575K but went on to earn an impressive USD 159 million stateside.
While Warfare may not match those peaks, its immersive storytelling, inspired by authentic military turmoil, could position it as a slow-burning success, especially if it captures the attention of adult audiences seeking substance amid a marketing-heavy lineup.
Warfare was made on a USD 20 million price tag; hence, turning profits should not be a problem for it. Rotten Tomatoes’ verdict is in its favor, with critics awarding the film a 93 percent Fresh rating.
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