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EXCLUSIVE - Padmaavat loses 25 percent of its Box Office revenue already
Sanjay Leela Bhansali's directorial Padmaavat is finally set to hit the screens on January 25, 2018. The movie stars Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor and Ranveer Singh in lead.
With Padmaavat set to release on January 25 alongside PadMan, the Box Office is set to witness a big clash. However, even before the films are set to release, Padmaavat has already been officially banned in three states which are Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat and other states could follow. If that happens, the losses would only grow.
Traditionally for a wide-reaching Hindi film, Rajasthan contributes 5-6%, Gujarat 10-11% and Madhya Pradesh 4-5% of the entire country’s box office revenue. However, with Padmaavat being based on a story set in Rajasthan, this film has more of an appeal in these states. Hence, the contributions from these states would have naturally contributed more to the box office collections, where Rajasthan would reach 8%, Gujarat 12%, Madhya Pradesh 5%, thus totalling it to 25%.
With the official ban being declared in these states, a loss of 25% of the box office revenue is already evident and the makers can’t do anything about it. This basically means if the film could do INR 200 crore at the box office to break-even, then with no release in these states, it would lose INR 50 crore and end up with only INT 150 crore.
This now means to get to the break-even point of INR 200 crore in India, the film needs to perform in the rest of the country like an INR 265 crore film at the box office, as there will be 25% loss from these states. That itself is a very tall order for the film, as it’s already clashing with another big release on the same day with PadMan.
We hope no other state bans the film, as that will just keep putting more pressure on the film to already cover its high cost.
Aatur Thakkar (Alliance Insurance; the company which has insured the film and the risk cover):
The policy would respond if the ban is by individuals, political parties or fringe groups. However, if the government bans the same I doubt if the client would stand protected. Considering the final scenario, we would work in the best interest of our customer.
Amod Mehra (Trade Analyst):
If the scenario continues the exhibitors in other territories will also get scared to screen the films which will also affect the business. I see a revenue loss of over 30 percent. I have been hearing that theatre owners have been agreeing to screen the film but are not forthcoming in paying advance for the film. Some of them are negotiating on the advance that the distributors of Padmaavat are asking for.
With PadMan releasing on the same day and with all these issues, the first day would be between INR 15 crore to INR 20 crore. If it had been a solo release, the business of the first day would've been INR 30 crore to INR 35 crore, so it is going to be a huge setback for Padmaavat. Even if the film is very good, they will only be able to break-even.
Amul Mohan (Trade Analyst):
Movies getting banned is a major letdown not only for the craft of filmmaking but also for the law and order situation in a particular city. In the past whenever it has happened, the business is always affected. From Fire to Bandit Queen to Jodha Akbar to Goliyon Ki Rasleela - Ram Leela, there is always been a slight financial hit for the makers but whatever has been happening to Padmaavat is not even in the same light to all these earlier releases. Authorities and local parties need to understand that a film is mostly for entertainment values and need to give them proper leeway in the same light. Right now we are predicting that the movie will open at INR 22 crore but if the movie gets banned in Gujarat and Rajasthan, the opening will suffer considerably and come down to INT 15 crore to 16 crore. That’s the margin.
Rajendra Jyala (Exhibitor):
The news of Padmaavat ban in some states is very disappointing to all exhibitors. But both Viacom 18 and exhibitors are hopeful that as the release gets closer there could a chance of the issue being resolved
Trade insider:
There has been no increase in the budget or any additional expenditure for the makers of the film. So if they really need to go all out with the publicity plan they can which is not needed as the film is much talked about and generated enough curiosity. Also at this point, the ban on the film is just talked about and there is already a supreme court ruling that no state can ban a film. The only reason a state can hold back the release is if there is a law and order situation and looking at the current scenario the Centre will have to intervene in the case. Another point that needs to be made here is how the state takes an ad-hoc decision on the ban on the film without seeing it.
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